Know The Yield Curve Before Trading Interest Rates

Interest rates play a pivotal role in all financial markets. No matter what market you trade whether it is stocks, forex, futures, options, ETFs, commodities, bonds etc, you need to keep an eye on the interest rates. A yield curve is a representation on the graph that compares the entire spectrum on interest rates available to investors.

Now as said before there are two types of interest rates in the economy; short term and long term. The return offered on the Treasury Bills is the short term interest rate while the return offered on the Treasury Notes and Bonds are long term interest rates. When you look at a Yield Curve these interest rates are plotted on the vertical axis with the time to maturity of these financial instruments on the horizontal axis. There can be three different shapes of a Yield Curve. The Normal Curve, The Flat Curve and the Inverted Curve. Let’s discuss these three different shapes now. On the Normal Curve, the short term interest rates are lower than the longer term interest rates as investors need a premium to invest long term. A Normal Curve represents normal economic activity where investors get rewarded for investing long term in the form of a higher long term interest rate on these financial instruments in the shape of a premium over the short term interest rates.

When you find the Yield Curve to be Flat, it means that all the interest rates in the economy are equal. What this indicates is that economic activity is slowing down. Now, most of the time you will come accross the Normal Yield Curve. But sometimes, you will find the Yield Curve to be Flat.

An inverted yield curve develops when the longer term interest rates become lower than the short term interest rates. Now, an inverted yield curve develops when the economy goes into a recession or during times of financial crisis when the traders flock to the safety of longer term US Treasury Bonds.

If you want to trade interest rates short term than Eurodollars are the best instruments that you can trade. Eurodollars are well suited for small traders because of the low margin requirements. Eurodollars also tend to be less volatile and have a highly liquid market due to the large number of market participants. However, like any other futures contracts, Eurodollars position needs to be carefully monitored. Ten Year T Notes and T Bonds can be highly volatile. You can also trade options on these interest rates futures.

Trading interest rate futures is no different than trading other futures contracts. When you trade interest rate futures, you need to pick your entry and exit points carefully including the worst case scenario that might include taking a margin call. You also need to keep in mind what the economic calendar has in store for you for that day.

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